A dear friend told it to me straight: no one believes experts are able to anticipate the future because the recent past has proven it. No one saw the Credit Crunch coming; the Arab Spring caught everyone by surprise; the Japanese tsunami was a true black swan.
No quite true of course. Bob Prechter, Nouriel Roubini, Richard Maybury, Dr Doom himself (Marc Faber) and others foresaw the economic crash; a computer at the University of Illinois predicted the Egyptian revolt; seismologists knew it was only a matter of time for Japan to be hit by a 'big one'.
However, I had to conceed that futurologists are not good at foreseeing 'out of the blue' events, any more than the average businessman. So what value can we offer? Here's a starter:
* a good sense of the coming agenda
* an evaluation for plausible outcomes
* a grip on the evolving dynamics shaping the world
* a wake-up call for the majority who see tomorrow as a repeat of today
And the consequences for businesses:
* taking smarter decisions in the evolving trading environment
* helping businesses and brands prepare for what's coming
* future-proofing existing offers
* stress testing strategies under different scenarios
* intercepting the future with new offers and services
* capturing leading edge targets
* demonstrating thought leadership
* challenging mono-cultures within companies by letting in different world views
* being an effective challenger brand by getting ahead of the curve
* making contingency plans for downturns, PR challenges, disruptive change
* providing a way to discuss fundamental business issues in a neutral way
Ultimately, it's about thinking more broadly about the changing world, lifting ideas above the day-to-day and moving the debate beyond stale, culture bound thinking. Looking to the future, forces management teams to examine their mental maps and ensures better decision taking.
So, no snake oil here. Just two challenges to management: 1) have you got the time, the energy, the courage and the intellectual horse-power to go beyond tactical delivery and build in business longevity?; 2) can you afford to ignore tomorrow's customer?