Futures Coaching

The Indian Growth Story

I don't know about you, but I've seen very little of India - I seem to have spent most of my time in airports. Those who know it better, almost universally, think of it as a fascinating, sensorial, stimulating place.

I have a feeling I'll be going much more in the future, given the phenominal growth which lies ahead. Goldman Sachs forecast that the Indian economy will expand, no less than 30 times to 2050. Yes, not 13; I really did mean 30!!

So, what explains this potential, and what might hold India's prospects back? If you've 5 minutes to invest, look here. You'll be amazed.

When 'cool' rhymes with 'fool' : the problem with trend scouting

I first posted this in March 2009 during the last recession. Since Europe looks to be entering a new period of negative growth, I've dusted it off.....

You know, when you've been kicking around in the trends arena for more years than you care to remember, you get to see most things and become aware of most methodologies. It's a case of the good, the bad and the ugly.

Of course, what matters is what works. And what works, for me, is what improves clients' decision making. And, as we all know, better decisions generate more sales and profits.

Put another way, to avoid decisions which destroy value, marketers should avoid bad trends emanating from bad methodologies like the plague. Which brings me to trend scouting.

Sometimes Trend forecasters like to sniff out small adjustments in the way people are thinking or behaving and postulate that this 'new way' will go mass market at some stage in the future.

To be honest, this so called 'weak signals' or trend scouting approach is pretty hit or miss. For every new emerging trend that actually becomes something bigger across society, many more whither and die. In fact they probably weren't an 'emerging trend' in the first place - merely the personal fixation of a particular trend watcher.

Your favourite trend watcher likes technology? Hey presto the future of the world and everything in it becomes a product of weak signals in technology. Or perhaps the world will be entirely shaped by emerging signals pointing to his/her favourite 'post materialist' values.

Cruelly, but rather pertinently, Malcolm Gladwell had this to say about this 'cool hunter' approach to trend spotting:

"Coolhunting is not a coherent philosophy. It's just a collection of spontaneous observations and predictions that differ from one moment to the next and from one coolhunter to the next." (Malcolm Gladwell. The Coolhunt: Annals of Style)

I was put in mind of this because we are at a HUGE inflection point across global societies and across all realms - social, political, economic, technological.

My point? Why go searching in the corners for the outliers, for the 'bad' micro trends? Today, you should be looking at the macro. These are so significant for the future of brands and so obvious as to be in-your-face?

So, forget the foolish trend scouts. Your brands' future prosperity lies in unbundling the massive changes that are afoot. See them and reap!

 

It's our Birthday!

We're celebrating 5 years of Futures Coaching. Can you hear those champagne corks popping?

Like everything else in life, there have been ups and downs on the way, but since 90% of success is about being there, I'm glad to say that business continues....! 

For a one minute view of what we've been up to click Download 5 years of Futures Coaching

 

Black Hole Marketing

We live in a world where, increasingly, winner takes all; being merely average or mainstream is the route to failure. Look around and we see this trend playing out everywhere. Celebrity culture, sporting heros, world cities, power brands, mega malls.....being the biggest and best (even by just a fraction) is enough to get disproportionate rewards. The rest are 'also rans'.

Marketers need to understand this new extremism and make decisions accordingly. Find yourself outside the Black Hole and you'll find your life's forces being sucking away.

Find out the dimensions of this trend - and some of the routes to growth here.

 

Consumer Accelerated Health

There is a revolution going on in healthcare, but it is not 'consumer centric health'. That was yesterday's revolution.

For this 'Growth Story', it is important not to misjudge the trends. Consumers are starting to disintemediate; to bi-pass professionals by participating and collaborating together. Rather than be passive recipents of the healthcare system, they are remodelling it. P2P networking is fundamentally different than the concentric model of patient care. 

Sevices like wegohealth.com; patientslikeme.com; stupidcancer.com; diabetesmine.com; nikerunning.com - are all showing the way. 

Find out more:  Download Consumer Accelerated Health

Growth through 'Little Indulgences'

In 'Growth Stories' we are focusing on positive trends for the coming year; places where money can still be made. Our latest analysis of change is to do with small luxuries. 

The boom of lipstick sales in recessions is not new and was noticed in the early 1990s downturn. What other sectors see similar upticks? What are the ways to benefit from this dynamic? And what traps have to be avoided? Find out in this concise '5 minute' analysis here.

Where to grow business in 2012...and beyond

In the first of the "Growth Stories" series of posts, I've focused on sure-fire socio-demographic trends.

Find out the formula for GDP growth and the 15 countries set for explosive increases in consumer spending. Investments, roll-out strategies and manpower allocations need to follow the money. You'll find out where to invest resources by following this link.

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Growth Stories

It's official: 2012 will be worse than 2011. Well, that's what most commentators, journalists, Heads of State and stock market pundits seem to be saying. The consensus is in one direction: caution, safety, cost-cutting and NO BIG DECISIONS.

However. 

There is lots of positive news out there. You just have to be willing to go beyond the consensus, the conventional and the groupstink (sic). 

So I've decided to dedicate a series of blogs to just that. "Growth Stories" will be vignettes aimed at revealing the forces that will drive market growth in 2012...and beyond. All will be positive and aimed at helping you building business fortunes and brand profiles.

And to avoid information overload, each trend analysis will take just 5 minutes to read. To ensure you catch each of our Growth Stories, sign-up for a weekly newsletter (top right of this blog). You can unsubscribe anytime you wish. 

It would be wrong to suggest that 2012 will be easy. It will be a time of high uncertainty, 'black swan' surprises and negativity. But whilst everyone else is looking the other way, this will be just the time to identify the market opportunities. Growth Stories will, I hope, help you do just that.

Snake oil salesman or valuable guide?

A dear friend told it to me straight: no one believes experts are able to anticipate the future because the recent past has proven it. No one saw the Credit Crunch coming; the Arab Spring caught everyone by surprise; the Japanese tsunami was a true black swan.

No quite true of course. Bob Prechter, Nouriel Roubini, Richard Maybury, Dr Doom himself (Marc Faber) and others foresaw the economic crash; a computer at the University of Illinois predicted the Egyptian revolt; seismologists knew it was only a matter of time for Japan to be hit by a 'big one'.

However, I had to conceed that futurologists are not good at foreseeing 'out of the blue' events, any more than the average businessman. So what value can we offer? Here's a starter:

* a good sense of the coming agenda

* an evaluation for plausible outcomes

* a grip on the evolving dynamics shaping the world

* a wake-up call for the majority who see tomorrow as a repeat of today

 

And the consequences for businesses:

* taking smarter decisions in the evolving trading environment

* helping businesses and brands prepare for what's coming

* future-proofing existing offers

* stress testing strategies under different scenarios

* intercepting the future with new offers and services

* capturing leading edge targets

* demonstrating thought leadership

* challenging mono-cultures within companies by letting in different world views

* being an effective challenger brand by getting ahead of the curve

* making contingency plans for downturns, PR challenges, disruptive change

* providing a way to discuss fundamental business issues in a neutral way

Ultimately, it's about thinking more broadly about the changing world, lifting ideas above the day-to-day and moving the debate beyond stale, culture bound thinking. Looking to the future, forces management teams to examine their mental maps and ensures better decision taking.

So, no snake oil here. Just two challenges to management: 1) have you got the time, the energy, the courage and the intellectual horse-power to go beyond tactical delivery and build in business longevity?; 2) can you afford to ignore tomorrow's customer?

 

 

 

Changing China

In recent visits to Shanghai and Hong Kong I've been able to witness, first hand, the forces of change in China. First and foremost, change is a cultural phenomenon as society turns its back on the past and looks ahead. For example, even parents mistrust their own know-how; it's too rooted in yesterday's world to be so relevant for their kids. Much better, therefore, to send off children to extra classes where the most pertinent knowledge can be trained: skills fit for the future.

And, of course, the government is the great facilitator of change. Its recent 5 year plan lays out the contours of $1.25trillion of investment in seven strategic industries. The results of the planned economy are seen in December 2011's launch of the 500kms/hour super-rapid train. 

For a concise 5 minute briefing on the dynamics of Chinese growth, click here .

Leisure Asia: Some of the biggest entertainment markets

Here goes with another from the Asia 5 series. In only 5 minutes, get yourself up-to-speed with 10 ways Asians chill.

Did you know that Pachinko parlours bring in four times more revenue than global casino spending? Or that the Chinese authorities run anti-addiction programmes for online gaming, such is their threat to the national economy?

Get a step up in your understanding of Asian leisure markets here.