When 'cool' rhymes with 'fool' : the problem with trend scouting

I first posted this in March 2009 during the last recession. Since Europe looks to be entering a new period of negative growth, I've dusted it off.....

You know, when you've been kicking around in the trends arena for more years than you care to remember, you get to see most things and become aware of most methodologies. It's a case of the good, the bad and the ugly.

Of course, what matters is what works. And what works, for me, is what improves clients' decision making. And, as we all know, better decisions generate more sales and profits.

Put another way, to avoid decisions which destroy value, marketers should avoid bad trends emanating from bad methodologies like the plague. Which brings me to trend scouting.

Sometimes Trend forecasters like to sniff out small adjustments in the way people are thinking or behaving and postulate that this 'new way' will go mass market at some stage in the future.

To be honest, this so called 'weak signals' or trend scouting approach is pretty hit or miss. For every new emerging trend that actually becomes something bigger across society, many more whither and die. In fact they probably weren't an 'emerging trend' in the first place - merely the personal fixation of a particular trend watcher.

Your favourite trend watcher likes technology? Hey presto the future of the world and everything in it becomes a product of weak signals in technology. Or perhaps the world will be entirely shaped by emerging signals pointing to his/her favourite 'post materialist' values.

Cruelly, but rather pertinently, Malcolm Gladwell had this to say about this 'cool hunter' approach to trend spotting:

"Coolhunting is not a coherent philosophy. It's just a collection of spontaneous observations and predictions that differ from one moment to the next and from one coolhunter to the next." (Malcolm Gladwell. The Coolhunt: Annals of Style)

I was put in mind of this because we are at a HUGE inflection point across global societies and across all realms - social, political, economic, technological.

My point? Why go searching in the corners for the outliers, for the 'bad' micro trends? Today, you should be looking at the macro. These are so significant for the future of brands and so obvious as to be in-your-face?

So, forget the foolish trend scouts. Your brands' future prosperity lies in unbundling the massive changes that are afoot. See them and reap!

 

Comments

[Miles Marks]

Refreshing to have some straight-talking and pragmatism on this subject. There seem to be new 'trends' propagated by some spotters 'almost every 5 minutes'. And they often seem to be just manifestations or fairly obvious observations based on the macro ones that are already known.