As this idiom suggests, it takes two or more sightings to give conviction that change is on its way. Like birds, like trends. I get really annoyed when self-appointed trendscouts see something unusual, attach a label and tell the world that they've just discovered the next 'next thing'. And it's not just trendscouts, journalists are forever making similar claims.
Take for instance, the recent article making a big thing of an apparent new thing - single straight men adopting kids. It's a long piece in Marie-Claire so it must be a burgeoning new trend, mustn't it? Well, actually, no. Even the article goes on to admit that only 0.3% of applications to adopt come from single men.
So one early lesson for budding trendwatchers is 'beware media headlines'. Always look at the sociological reality beneath.
But the other point is to try and triangulate - a trend is a real trend when a number of pieces of evidence come together from different origins and point to the same underlying phenomenon.
I'll give you an example. Here's a trend which I'm seeing manifest everywhere. It's called 'Hyper Life'. Basically, it's the growing sentiment that everyday life is distinctly dull and needs to be punctuated by periods of intensity for it to be worthwhile. Here's the (multiple) evidence.
1. Important rise in extreme sports - both numbers of participants and varieties (bungee jumping,
free-running, BASE-jumping, zorbing, snowkiting, kitesurfing, coasteering, canyonning etc).
2. Increasing use of technology to magnify ordinary life experiences - eg. ear pieces for spectators to listen to the referees comments during a live rugby match
3. The rise and rise of Summer music festivals
4. The binge drinking culture which is spreading fast: even the young in France with their 'open bars' are adopting the drinking patterns more often associated with anglo-saxon cultures
5. New findings from America which associate teenage drug use and other risky behaviour with the idea that their situation is hopeless so it's important to live life to the full today - even if it means dying young. (In fact the survey found 15% of the teenagers interviewed have a death wish!).
Five insights which together start to tell the story of a very real sociological phenomenon - one you can have confidence in when it comes to marketing strategy.
With this in mind, ask yourself, what is dull about your offer? And what can you do today to make it intensely interesting to the very many consumers who are continually searching for a Hyper Life?